BBC Preview Week 3: Eric Stults fills in nicely on Dodgers' staff

Pitching might win you ballgames, but it sure can cost you in Baseball Challenge.

Has there been any more frustrating aspect of the 2009 baseball season than treading the treacherous pitching landscape? OK, maybe owners of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Jimmy Rollins have somethings to complain about, but it's the pitching that has done in many fantasy owners through nearly two weeks of action.

Don't see it that way? Well, here are some stats that might persuade you: Through Thursday's games, the composite major league ERA was 4.79 and WHIP was 1.44. For comparison, in 2008, those numbers were 4.32 and 1.39, respectively.

For BBC purposes, consider that of the 10 pitching staffs priced at 6.0 or more to begin the season, five currently rank in the bottom half of the majors in points earned. Two of them -- the Diamondbacks (originally 6.4) and the Phillies (originally 6.0) -- haven't averaged even five BBC points per game. Meanwhile, three (the Cardinals, Mariners and Marlins) of the top six pitching staffs so far cost no more than 5.6 to begin the season.

Check out the extensive list of individual big-name pitchers off to substandard starts: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester and Rich Harden. Then tack on those pitchers residing on the DL: Brandon Webb, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka. That's 36 percent of the top 25 starting pitchers selected in traditional fantasy baseball leagues. Thirty-six percent!

In other words, if you have been successful in our game through the first two weeks of the season, it's probably because you've been fortunate enough to pick the right pitching staffs at the right times, not because your offense has been carrying you.

With that in mind, before getting to my "pitching staff values" section, I thought it would be helpful to rank my top five overall BBC pitching staffs for the next, say, month, in case you prefer overall value to matchup-playing. Let's give the section a creative name, too, shall we?

Tough staffs for trying times

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 6.5 price tag: The Dodgers have been my No. 1 pitching-staff-value selection in each of the first two weeks of the BBC, and they had more points (190) than anyone through Thursday. Hiroki Kuroda's absence might detract a bit from the staff's value, but fill-in Eric Stults is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in two spot starts for the right-hander. This bullpen also has a 3.16 ERA after registering a 3.34 mark in 2008.

2. Tampa Bay Rays, 6.3: It's the bullpen -- well, that and fifth starter Jeff Niemann, who did have a decent outing Thursday -- that has me slightly skeptical about the Rays, but this is a deep rotation with a significant home-field advantage. Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza give Tampa Bay a top three that rivals that of almost any other team in baseball, and Andy Sonnanstine is a more-than-serviceable No. 4 starter.

3. Florida Marlins, 6.0: I love what this staff can do … if it can stay healthy. Josh Johnson is a legitimate Cy Young contender (if he can stay healthy), Ricky Nolasco is every bit as talented as his 2008 numbers show (if he can stay healthy), Anibal Sanchez so far looks capable of recapturing his 2006 rookie magic (if he can stay healthy), Matt Lindstrom can be a lock-down closer (if he can stay healthy) … sense a theme here? The bottom line is that right now, I'll take games from a healthy, talented pitching staff, especially knowing that in the BBC, if anyone gets hurt, I can just replace this team.

4. Chicago Cubs, 6.5: Rich Harden's struggles concern me, and I've made no secret of my distrust of Carlos Zambrano the past couple of seasons. But a healthy Harden can rival any pitcher in the game, and if there's any time to trust Zambrano, it's early in the season before he begins to wear down (as he did late in 2008). This team already ranks first in baseball in team strikeouts, and the offense is going to provide enough run support to win most nights, a great combination when seeking a BBC staff.

5. Minnesota Twins, 5.8: Bold call to pick a team with a 5.91 ERA, eh? Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey have looked shaky thus far, but I call their early season numbers total aberrations. They're more talented than this, and while fourth and fifth starters Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins are a bit more unpredictable, one thing I can say in their defense is that they had a combined 15-6 record and 3.39 ERA at home in 2008. That means the only time to avoid this staff is in heavy road weeks when Blackburn and Perkins will be eating up most of the Twins' starts.

Tristan's top pitching staff values

I'm giving you two this week, mainly because it'd be redundant to pick one of the above five twice. (For the record, I like the Rays' Week 3 schedule most of the above five.)

1. Atlanta Braves (@WAS-3, @CIN-3 -- two-start pitcher Derek Lowe): As I wrote in this week's Forecaster, the Reds are off to a sluggish start offensively, so three games at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park shouldn't be immediately dismissed as a pitching matchup. But this pick is all about the two-start pitcher, Lowe. This is one of the worst weeks I've seen in terms of two-start pitchers in quite some time, and in weeks like this, you should take whatever ace you can get.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (SD-1, MIL-3, @FLA-3 -- two-start pitchers Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton): Another case in which the two-start pitcher makes a difference. Not that Moyer will be mistaken for a Cy Young candidate, but he's 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six career starts at Dolphin Stadium. You read that right -- he's perfect in wins in his career there. Moyer draws the Padres in his other turn, and one would think the aforementioned Hamels and Brett Myers have to improve.

Smack talk!

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me.

Drew of Middletown, R.I., says: "Come on, dog, the weekly game is for children and old ladies. The daily game is where the real men are. You disappoint me."

Tristan: A comment I knew was coming at some point, and it does draw back to the theme of this week's column, picking pitching staffs. Frankly, one of the things that most differentiates the daily from the weekly BBC is your pitching-staff strategy. In a weekly game, you need to account for a greater quantity of matchups, and I think that actually makes for a challenge. In the daily game, you're picking a staff based on the individual pitcher starting. I look at the Astros (5.5 price tag) and say I'd almost never use them in the weekly format but would be thrilled to get them that cheap when Roy Oswalt starts. Just a difference in philosophy in what we want out of the game.

That said, I also think that if you play the daily BBC, you must commit to 180-plus days straight of careful attention to your lineup. And now that I have a 2-year-old (as well as many other priorities), the last thing I want to do is give you anything less than a 100 percent competitive effort. Even 99 percent, in my mind, is unacceptable.

Daily dips

Monday, April 20 -- Chris Young, CF, Diamondbacks (versus Jason Marquis), 4.7 price tag: He's 3-for-9 (.333 batting average) in his career versus Marquis, and all three of those hits were home runs. Young also has a career OPS 57 points higher at home than on the road for his career, a split that was as wide as 67 points in 2008 alone.

Tuesday, April 21 -- Travis Hafner, DH, Indians (versus Sidney Ponson), 4.9: He's 4-for-7 (.571) with two doubles, one home run and three walks in his career against Ponson, and he already has homered in each of his first two games at home this season.

Wednesday, April 22 -- Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies (versus Braden Looper), 4.9: In seven career plate appearances against Looper, Howard has four hits, all home runs, and two walks. Only once has Looper retired him.

Thursday, April 23 -- Luke Scott, DH, Orioles (versus Bartolo Colon), 3.2: He's 5-for-8 (.625) with three doubles and two home runs in his career versus Colon, and he has an .847 OPS in 78 career games at Camden Yards.

Friday, April 24 -- Jermaine Dye, RF, White Sox (versus Brian Tallet), 4.6: He has faced Tallet on three separate occasions in his career and hit home runs twice. In this game, he presumably will get to face the left-hander multiple times. He also has a .294 batting average and .906 OPS and has averaged one homer per 15.9 at-bats in 323 career games at U.S. Cellular Field.

Saturday, April 25 -- Randy Winn, RF, Giants (versus Doug Davis), 4.9: He's 13-for-34 (.382) lifetime with two doubles, two home runs and two walks against Davis, and he's a .358 hitter with eight homers in 31 career games at Chase Field.

Sunday, April 26 -- Austin Kearns, DH, Nationals (versus Oliver Perez), 3.8: He's 8-for-27 (.296) lifetime with one double and three home runs against Perez.

Tristan's Week 3 lineup

Total points: 527 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 99.1. Overall rank: 419th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 25th. C -- Victor Martinez, Indians (KC-3, MIN-3), locked at 4.8: Tops among catchers with 48 BBC points, and the Indians are home all week.
1B -- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (@LAA-3, @KC-3), locked at 5.0: There are other quality first basemen out there, but I have a feeling it's smart to keep him locked in at 5.0. There's a good chance he'll cost about 6.0 a month from now.
2B -- Ian Kinsler, Rangers (@TOR-3, @BAL-3), locked at 5.0: Dominating the field at his position, and he's a noted standout in the month of April.
3B -- David Wright, Mets (@STL-3, WAS-3), 4.8: I know, I'm way too much of a David Wright fan … but for his talent, I think a 4.8 price tag is a steal.
SS -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (@PIT-3, PHI-3), locked at 5.0: I'll stick with him; the pool of shortstops has underwhelmed me thus far.
LF -- Jason Bay, Red Sox (BAL-1, MIN-2, NYY-3), 5.2: One of Boston's few bright spots thus far, and he has an .883 OPS at Fenway in his Red Sox career.
CF -- Grady Sizemore, Indians (KC-3, MIN-3), 5.2: .214 batting average or not, he's drawing walks, stealing bases and hitting for power.
RF -- Nick Markakis, Orioles (@BOS-1, CHW-3, TEX-3), locked at 5.0: A mainstay in my lineup thus far, especially with this being a seven-game week.
DH -- Luke Scott, Orioles (@BOS-1, CHW-3, TEX-3), 3.2: Great week to be a left-handed Orioles hitter, with six home games and six scheduled righty opponents.
Pitching staff -- Rays (@SEA-3, @OAK-3), 6.3

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality experts league. You can e-mail him here.